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Britain has authorised its military to board and detain Russian shadow fleet vessels, drawing a warning of countermeasures from Moscow, while Zelensky revealed Washington is conditioning post-war security guarantees on Kyiv withdrawing from the Donbas.

Israel killed the IRGC's naval commander in a strike on Bandar Abbas, the US and Iran offered contradicting accounts of whether negotiations are underway, and analysts warned European gas prices could triple if Qatari LNG exports remain halted.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺🇬🇧 Russia warns UK over vessel detentions: Britain authorised its military to board and detain Russian ships in its waters, targeting the shadow fleet Moscow uses to fund its war in Ukraine. Russia called the move “deeply hostile” and vowed political, legal, and asymmetric countermeasures.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦🇺🇸 US ties Ukraine security guarantees to Donbas withdrawal: Zelensky revealed Washington is conditioning post-war security guarantees on Kyiv ceding the Donbas to Russia, warning the terms would weaken Ukraine’s defences. He called for a three-way summit with Trump and Putin to resolve outstanding territorial questions.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸🤖 Judge blocks Pentagon’s Anthropic crackdown: A federal judge ruled the Pentagon’s designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk was unconstitutional retaliation for the AI firm’s refusal to allow its technology in autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. The court found the move violated Anthropic’s First Amendment and due process rights.

4️⃣ 🇪🇺🇺🇸 European Parliament backs EU-US trade deal: MEPs voted 417 to 154 to implement a trade agreement setting tariffs at 15% on most EU goods, with safeguards to suspend the deal if the US imposes additional duties or threatens EU sovereignty. All 27 member states must still sign off, with a final vote expected in April or May.

5️⃣ 🇰🇵🇧🇾 Kim and Lukashenko sign friendship treaty: The two leaders met in Pyongyang and formalised a new bilateral partnership, with Lukashenko framing it as a “fundamentally new stage” in relations. The visit comes despite a recent thaw between Belarus and Washington, which saw Lukashenko free 250 prisoners in exchange for eased sanctions.

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Major Story

🇮🇷 Iran War Update: Day 27

Military

1️⃣ 🇮🇷🇮🇱 Israel kills IRGC naval commander in Bandar Abbas strike: Alireza Tangsiri, the head of the IRGC's maritime force since 2018, was killed in an Israeli airstrike alongside the IRGC Navy's intelligence chief. Tangsiri oversaw Iran's cruise missile testing and drone development and was considered a key architect of the capabilities now being used to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 Pentagon surges missile production with industry deals: The Pentagon signed framework agreements with Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Honeywell Aerospace to rapidly scale up missile systems and components, including quadrupling output of both the Precision Strike Missile and THAAD interceptor. The surge covers a broad range of capabilities including navigation systems, air-to-air missiles, and drone-defeating interceptors amid ongoing operations against Iran.

Diplomacy

1️⃣ 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran denies negotiations as US insists talks are ongoing: Iran's foreign minister flatly denied any negotiations with the US are taking place, while Trump's press secretary described talks as "ongoing and productive," reflecting a direct contradiction between both sides. Iran's reported counter-proposals include a full halt to strikes, war reparations, and sole control over the Strait of Hormuz, against US demands centred on nuclear disarmament, missile limits, and ending proxy funding. Trump paused threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days until April 6, insisting talks are "going very well".

2️⃣ 🇺🇸🇮🇱 Trump rejected Netanyahu's call for Iranian uprising: Trump reportedly turned down a proposal to jointly urge Iranians to take to the streets after Israel eliminated senior IRGC officials, fearing protesters would be massacred by regime forces. Netanyahu subsequently issued a softer, unilateral call encouraging Iranians to celebrate a Persian festival, though no mass demonstrations materialised.

3️⃣ 🇺🇦🇸🇦 Zelensky visits Saudi Arabia pitching drone expertise for air defence deals: Zelensky travelled to Riyadh offering Ukraine's battlefield drone and electronic warfare experience to Gulf states in exchange for air defence missiles Ukraine lacks. Several Ukrainian drone firms say they have already been approached by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait, but are awaiting government approval to export amid concerns over Ukraine's own security needs.

Economic/Oil

1️⃣ 🇦🇪🇮🇷 UAE oil chief labels Hormuz blockade "economic terrorism": Sultan al-Jaber, head of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., condemned Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an act of economic terrorism against global consumers, not just a single nation. The remarks signal hardening UAE rhetoric as the war approaches its one-month mark.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 Europe's gas prices at risk as Qatari LNG flows stall: Analysts warn European gas prices could triple to €155/MWh if Qatari LNG exports remain halted for three months, with a six-month disruption potentially replicating or exceeding the 2022 energy crisis that saw prices spike beyond €300/MWh. Most EU countries are already below their five-year average storage levels, with Germany and the Netherlands showing the most depleted reserves.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 Putin turns to oligarchs as defence budget strains: Russia’s defence spending has surged 42% to 13.1 trillion roubles, with the budget deficit for January and February already exceeding 90% of the full-year projection. At least two businessmen have agreed to donate after Putin reportedly pressed ahead with the war pending full control of the Donbas.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸🌍 NATO chief credits Trump for alliance spending gains: Secretary General Rutte said Trump’s pressure drove all NATO members to meet the 2% GDP defence spending threshold for the first time. Rutte also backed US-Israeli strikes on Iran and said France, Germany, and the UK are drafting plans to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

3️⃣ 🇻🇪🇺🇸 Judge questions US block on Maduro’s legal funding: A federal judge declined to dismiss drug-trafficking charges against former Venezuelan President Maduro but challenged the administration’s decision to bar Venezuela from financing his defence. Judge Hellerstein said the constitutional right to counsel was “paramount” over the government’s national security justification.

4️⃣ 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine strikes major Russian oil refinery: Drones reportedly hit the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery in Russia’s Leningrad region, which processed nearly 7% of Russia’s total refining volume in 2024, following a week of strikes on nearby oil terminals. An estimated 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity has now been disrupted across multiple fronts.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸🇺🇦 Pentagon eyes redirecting Ukraine aid to Middle East: The US has notified Congress of plans to divert $750 million in NATO-funded weapons from Ukraine to restock its own inventories amid the Iran war. Volodymyr Zelensky responded by urging Europe to build independent air defence production capacity rather than rely on external partners.

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