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Intelligence agencies from two NATO member states have warned that Russia is preparing a potential provocation against the Baltic states or Poland, possibly involving missiles or drones, as Moscow faces mounting pressure from Ukraine's long-range strike campaign.

Meanwhile, a cargo ship on Oman's new UN-backed Hormuz route was struck by a projectile as the IRGC warned all vessels against unauthorised transit, prompting the UN maritime agency to pause its ship evacuation programme.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇫🇷🇷🇺 France intercepts Russian shadow fleet tanker off Sicily: Macron announced French forces boarded the Cameroonian-flagged vessel "Deliver" off the coast of Sicily, saying it was sailing in violation of maritime law and sharing footage of troops searching the ship. The operation follows the UK's interception of shadow fleet tanker "Smyrtos" in the English Channel earlier this month, with Macron vowing Europe would not allow the fleet to circumvent sanctions and fund Russia's war effort.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺🇺🇦 EU transfers €3.2 billion to Ukraine as first payment under €90 billion loan: Von der Leyen made the announcement at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk, saying the funds would cover Kyiv's budgetary gaps and guarantee financial stability after a six-month political struggle to get the loan off the ground. A second disbursement of around €6 billion, dedicated to drone production and exempt from "Made in Europe" purchasing rules, is expected within days.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳🇹🇼 China defends east-Taiwan patrols after Britain, France and Germany raise alarm: Beijing's foreign ministry said its coast guard activities were legitimate exercises of jurisdiction, countering a joint European statement warning the operations threatened regional stability, freedom of navigation and the safety of international shipping. China deployed the vessels after Japan and the Philippines announced plans to discuss maritime boundaries in waters Beijing regards as its own territory.

4️⃣ 🇮🇷 Cargo ship struck in Hormuz as IRGC warns against unauthorised transit: A vessel on the new Oman-UN route sustained bridge damage from a projectile seven nautical miles off the Omani coast, prompting the International Maritime Organisation to pause its evacuation programme for ships stranded in the Persian Gulf pending safety guarantees. The IRGC had earlier declared any transit without Iranian permission "illegal," warning violators would "carry the consequences," without elaborating.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 Trump says NATO allies "let him down" for not backing Iran war: Trump told Secretary General Rutte he was disappointed European allies had not offered support, saying the US "demolished" Iran in the first week without assistance. Rutte's acknowledgement that 4,000–5,000 US aircraft had operated from European bases drew condemnation from Iran, which accused NATO of "active complicity" in an unlawful war, while Italy stressed it had only authorised technical and logistical flights.

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Major Story

🇷🇺 NATO members warn of possible Russian 'provocation'

Intelligence agencies from two NATO member states have warned that Russia may be preparing a provocation against the Baltic states or Poland, aimed at testing Western alliance cohesion amid growing pressure from Ukraine's long-range strike campaign.

Latvian intelligence assessed the threat would fall well short of a full-scale attack, pointing instead to potential hybrid measures such as missiles or drones designed to pressure Western countries into reducing support for Ukraine. 

The warnings come as Russia's advance in Ukraine has stalled and Kyiv's drone campaign increasingly strikes targets near Moscow and St Petersburg, with one western military source describing the current moment as "a period of danger." 

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇱🇺🇦 Zelensky skips Gdańsk recovery conference amid Poland-Ukraine diplomatic row: Polish PM Donald Tusk opened the Ukraine Recovery Conference without Zelensky, who was stripped of Poland's highest state honour over Ukraine's decision to name a military unit after the wartime Ukrainian Insurgent Army, which Poland accuses of committing genocide against ethnic Poles in the 1940s. Tusk called for "truth" and "mutual respect," stressing the dispute should not affect Poland's support for Ukraine, as Zelensky returned the Polish Order of the White Eagle.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸🇬🇧 Trump labels UK's expected new prime minister Burnham "extremely liberal": Trump told reporters he knew little about Burnham beyond hearing he was "extremely liberal," adding he likely would not open the North Sea to more oil drilling. The comments came as Burnham emerged as the sole candidate to succeed Keir Starmer, who resigned Monday after poor poll ratings and weak local election results, with a leadership contest expected to conclude by mid-July.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's chief negotiator rejects US claim unfrozen funds will buy American goods: Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf denied Trump's assertion that Tehran's unfrozen assets would be spent on US agricultural exports, saying the MOU contains no legal clauses requiring such purchases and calling the claim "false." Iran's central bank governor separately stated the released funds would not necessarily be restricted to essential goods under the emerging agreement with Washington.

4️⃣ 🇨🇦 Canada's Carney calls for reopening embassies in Iran and Venezuela: Prime Minister Carney said diplomatic absence hampers Ottawa's ability to help Canadians abroad and respond to crises, citing Venezuela's earthquakes as an example requiring faster humanitarian action than Canada's current posture allows. No final decision has been made, but Carney said the status quo needed to change, framing engagement as distinct from endorsing either government's policies.

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