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The Iran War has entered its third week with the IDF claiming to have left Iran unable to produce new ballistic missiles, and Trump's call for allied nations to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz met no immediate commitments.

Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged fresh strikes amid what Islamabad has called an open war, North Korea fired around 10 ballistic missiles in response to US-South Korea military drills, and Kazakhstan held a controversial constitutional referendum amid reports of journalist detentions and election monitor restrictions.

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1️⃣ 🇵🇰🇦🇫 Pakistan-Afghanistan fighting intensifies: Pakistan struck what it described as militant equipment storage and support infrastructure in Afghanistan's Kandahar region overnight, while Afghanistan claimed retaliatory attacks on Pakistani military positions in South Waziristan and across the Kunar and Nangarhar borders — with both sides dismissing each other's casualty claims as false. A mortar fired from Afghanistan killed at least four members of the same family in Pakistan's Bajaur district, as the conflict Islamabad has called an "open war" shows no sign of abating since it escalated in late February.

2️⃣ 🇰🇵 North Korea fires missiles amid US-South Korea drills: Around 10 ballistic missiles were launched from near Pyongyang's international airport into the Sea of Japan in response to Freedom Shield, the annual 11-day joint military exercise between the US and South Korea. Experts warned the launches risk undermining recent diplomatic efforts, with the missiles fired just hours after South Korea's prime minister met President Trump in Washington.

3️⃣ 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan votes on sweeping constitutional changes: Kazakhs voted on a new constitution that would replace the bicameral parliament with a single chamber and expand presidential appointment powers without requiring parliamentary approval — changes critics say concentrate authority in the executive. The vote was marred by the brief detention of journalists near polling stations, denied access for some election monitors, and OSCE criticism over limited public information on the proposed changes, though turnout exceeded the threshold required to validate the result.

4️⃣ 🇫🇷 France expands Middle East military presence: France deployed eight warships, two helicopter carriers and the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the eastern Mediterranean and wider Middle East, with Macron framing the presence as defensive and aimed at positioning Paris for future diplomatic talks. Macron has spoken with Iranian President Pezeshkian — the first Western leader to do so since the war began — though no signs of de-escalation have emerged, and one French soldier was killed in a drone attack in northern Iraq.

5️⃣ 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine peace talks stalled over venue dispute: Zelenskyy said Kyiv is prepared for the next round of trilateral talks with Russia and the US but is waiting on both parties to agree on a location, after Washington proposed meeting in the US and Moscow declined. Russia meanwhile continued near-daily strikes on Ukraine, with Zelenskyy reporting over 1,770 drones, 1,530 guided bombs and 86 missiles launched against the country in the past week alone.

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Major Story

🇮🇷 Iran War: Day 16

Military

1️⃣ IDF says Iran can no longer produce new missiles: Israeli military officials said the campaign against Iran is progressing ahead of schedule, claiming strikes on over 1,700 military industry assets have left Iran currently unable to manufacture new ballistic missiles. The IDF said it plans at least three more weeks of operations, has destroyed or disabled around 70 percent of Iran's estimated 500 ballistic missile launchers, and now holds air supremacy over most of Iranian airspace after taking out more than 100 air defence systems.

2️⃣ Israel strikes Beirut suburbs as Lebanon death toll hits 850: Israel launched fresh overnight strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs and struck what it described as Hezbollah command centres and launch sites across Lebanon's south and east. Israel's foreign minister ruled out direct negotiations with Lebanon despite a Lebanese proposal to form a delegation.

3️⃣ Israel running low on missile interceptors: Israel has warned the US that its ballistic missile interceptor stockpile is critically depleted after sustained Iranian barrages, with reports indicating Iran has also equipped some missiles with cluster munitions, further accelerating the depletion. A US official told Semafor the shortage had been anticipated, and that Israel is working on solutions, though it remains unclear whether Washington will transfer additional interceptors given the strain already placed on American inventories.

Diplomacy

1️⃣ Iran insists new supreme leader is fit to govern: Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said there is "no problem" with new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who US officials say was wounded in the strike that killed his father, adding that Khamenei had already sent a message and would continue performing his duties. Khamenei, 56, has not been seen publicly since the strike, and Araghchi separately called on neighbouring countries to expel US forces from the region, saying Washington's security umbrella had proven to invite rather than deter trouble.

2️⃣ Trump's Hormuz coalition call meets muted response: Trump publicly urged France, Japan, South Korea, the UK and China to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but no country made immediate commitments, with Germany expressing scepticism and France saying any escort mission must wait until fighting subsides. Iran's Revolutionary Guard challenged Trump's claim that its navy had been destroyed, while the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed US officials, that an announcement of a coalition agreement could come as early as this week.

3️⃣ India secures rare Hormuz passage for two gas tankers: Two Indian-flagged LPG tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz after Iran granted them safe passage in a rare exception to its blockade, as India faces a critical cooking gas shortage triggered by the disruption to Gulf energy supplies. Iran's ambassador to India confirmed some vessels had been permitted through, while the Indian government invoked emergency powers to restrict LPG distribution and urged consumers to switch to piped gas where available.

4️⃣ Ukraine seeks payment for Middle East drone expertise: Zelenskyy confirmed three Ukrainian teams were dispatched to Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and a US base in Jordan to assist with drone defence assessments, and said Kyiv expects financial compensation and technology transfers in return. Trump has publicly stated he does not need Ukraine's assistance in countering Iranian drones, and Zelenskyy said he remains unclear why Washington has not signed a drone agreement despite having approached Kyiv multiple times.

5️⃣ Michigan synagogue attacker's brother identified as Hezbollah commander: The IDF claimed the brother of Ayman Ghazali — who drove a truck into Temple Israel in West Bloomfield, Michigan, before shooting himself — was a Hezbollah commander eliminated in an Israeli airstrike last week. A Hezbollah official separately told the New York Times the attack was carried out in retaliation for an Israeli strike on March 5 that killed four of Ghazali's family members, though the official neither confirmed nor denied the IDF's claim about his brother.

Economy/Oil

1️⃣ Oil tops $104 as US strikes Kharg Island: Brent crude rose to $104.98 per barrel on Monday after the US struck Iran's Kharg Island oil hub, through which 90 percent of Iran's oil exports typically flow, with Trump claiming the strikes had largely demolished the facility while insisting only military targets were hit. The average US fuel price reached $3.70 per gallon, up 62 cents from a month ago, as countries across Asia began implementing fuel subsidies and rationing measures in response to the energy crunch.

2️⃣ US eases Russian oil sanctions amid Iran war price shock: The Trump administration temporarily lifted sanctions for 30 days on Russian oil already loaded on tankers, framing the move as a measure to stabilise global energy markets disrupted by the Iran war. Zelenskyy warned the exemption could provide Russia with around $10 billion for its war effort, while all other G7 nations opposed the decision and oil prices remained above $100 a barrel regardless.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇭🇺 Hungary election campaign turns on war and Russian interference claims: Orbán and opposition leader Péter Magyar held rival Budapest rallies on Hungary's national day, with Orbán framing the 6 April vote as a choice between peace and war and accusing Ukraine and the EU of meddling in the campaign, while Magyar branded Orbán a traitor and alleged he had enlisted Russian agents to rig the election — a claim Russia denied. Magyar's Tisza Party leads Fidesz in most polls, with Magyar also pledging to restore frozen EU funding and improve living standards if elected.

2️⃣ 🇺🇬 Bobi Wine flees Uganda fearing assassination: Ugandan opposition leader Bobi Wine told the BBC he spent two months in hiding before fleeing the country following January's disputed election, saying the government had made clear it intended to kill him. Museveni's son and military chief Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba publicly declared Wine was "wanted dead or alive" — messages since deleted — while some government members denied security forces had been searching for him.

3️⃣ 🇨🇬 Congo votes in election expected to extend Nguesso's four-decade rule: The Republic of Congo held a presidential election in which 82-year-old incumbent Denis Sassou Nguesso faces six little-known challengers, with major opposition parties boycotting the vote over alleged electoral irregularities and two prominent opposition figures currently imprisoned. Freedom House rates the country 17 out of 100 for political freedom, and analysts expect turnout to fall below the 68 percent recorded in 2021, when Nguesso won with 88.4 percent of the vote.

4️⃣ 🇺🇦🇷🇺🇮🇷 Zelenskyy says Russia gave Iran drones used against US bases: Zelenskyy claimed in a CNN interview that Russia transferred Shahed drones to Iran, which subsequently used them against US military bases in the Middle East, saying he had complete certainty of the claim. President Trump acknowledged Putin might be providing Iran with military assistance while framing it as a reciprocal dynamic given US support for Ukraine; at least 13 US service members have been killed and around 140 wounded since the US-Israeli operation began on February 28.

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