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Cross-border fighting between Afghanistan and Pakistan has entered its fourth day, with Kabul claiming it repelled Pakistani jets attempting to strike the former U.S. base at Bagram while both sides report heavy casualties.

This comes as Cuba faces a critical fuel shortage with analysts warning of "zero hour" by mid-March, Belgium seized a Russian shadow fleet tanker in the North Sea, and Kremlin figures openly celebrated the potential for oil prices to spike following strikes on Iran.

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1️⃣ 🇦🇫🇵🇰 Afghanistan says it repelled Pakistani airstrike on Bagram: Afghanistan claims it thwarted Pakistani jets attempting to strike the former U.S. base at Bagram on Sunday, with cross-border fighting now in its fourth day after Pakistan declared “open war.” Both sides claim to have inflicted heavy casualties, while Pakistan says its ground forces have seized a key Afghan post near Kandahar province.

2️⃣ 🇨🇺🇺🇸 Cuba faces “zero hour” as Trump squeezes regime: Analysts warn Cuba will reach a critical breaking point by mid-March without oil deliveries, as the U.S. energy blockade exacerbates food, medicine and water shortages affecting millions. Secretary of State Rubio has reportedly held talks with Raúl Castro’s grandson, signalling the administration may accept gradual change rather than immediate regime collapse.

3️⃣ 🇧🇪🇷🇺 Belgium seizes Russian shadow fleet tanker in North Sea: Belgian naval forces seized the Ethera, a tanker sailing under a false Guinean flag with falsified documents, with French helicopters assisting the operation. The seizure is part of EU efforts to enforce sanctions on Moscow’s oil trade funding the war in Ukraine.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳🇺🇸 China denies U.S. claims of nuclear explosive tests: Beijing rejected Washington’s allegations that it conducted nuclear tests, accusing the U.S. of being the primary driver of global nuclear instability by backtracking on arms-control commitments. China reaffirmed its no-first-use policy and said it maintains nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security.

5️⃣ 🇭🇺🇺🇦 Hungary raises terror alert and renews pressure on Ukraine over oil: Prime Minister Orbán raised Hungary’s terror threat level following strikes on Iran, warning of increased risk of retaliatory attacks across Europe. He also renewed pressure on Ukraine to restore Russian oil flows through the damaged Druzhba pipeline, maintaining countermeasures against Kyiv as the conflict threatens energy prices.

Major Story

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Iran War: Conflict widens as Hezbollah enters the fight

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran entered its third day with the conflict expanding to Lebanon after Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel responded with heavy airstrikes across Beirut's southern suburbs and issued evacuation orders for dozens of villages, displacing tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians in scenes not seen since the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah war.

Military operations continue at pace. The US has struck over 1,000 Iranian targets since Saturday, with President Trump telling Fox News that 48 Iranian leaders have been killed. The Pentagon confirmed three US service members killed and five seriously wounded in Kuwait, marking the first American casualties. Israel has begun striking targets "in the heart of Tehran," with the US claiming to have destroyed IRGC headquarters. Trump warned combat operations will continue "until all objectives are achieved" and suggested the conflict could last "four weeks or less."

Iran's retaliation spreads across the Gulf. Tehran has fired missiles and drones at US military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, while also striking Saudi Arabia's capital and Dubai. The UAE reported three people killed and 58 wounded from 165 ballistic missiles and 541 drones launched against it, prompting Abu Dhabi to close its embassy in Tehran and recall its ambassador. Bahrain reported one fatality and intercepted 61 missiles and 34 drones. A suspected drone struck the UK's RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus, causing limited damage and no casualties. An oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, with four crew injured and the IRGC declaring the waterway effectively closed to international navigation.

Diplomatic manoeuvring intensifies. Iran's security chief Ali Larijani declared Tehran "will not negotiate with the United States," contradicting reports of Iranian outreach through Oman. However, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that a new supreme leader could be elected within one to two days, with an interim leadership council already established comprising the president, head of judiciary, and a Guardian Council jurist. Trump claimed Iran's new leadership "wants to talk" and that he has "agreed to talk," though timing remains unclear.

International response divides along familiar lines. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer authorised US use of British bases for "defensive" strikes against Iranian missile sites, prompting criticism from Liberal Democrats and Greens demanding a parliamentary vote. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for "a credible transition in Iran," the first explicit EU backing for regime change, though the bloc's foreign ministers' joint statement notably did not endorse this position. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged planning for "the day after" while noting reservations about US-Israeli actions. Russia's Putin condemned Khamenei's killing as "a cynical murder," while China and Russia said they would coordinate action at the UN Security Council.

Economic fallout accelerates. Brent crude jumped 13% to $82 per barrel—a 14-month high—as Maersk and other major shipping companies suspended Strait of Hormuz transits. Stock markets fell across Asia and the Gulf, with the UAE closing its exchanges until Wednesday. Over 3,400 flights have been cancelled across Middle Eastern airports, stranding hundreds of thousands of travellers. OPEC+ announced a modest output increase of 206,000 barrels per day starting in April.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 Kremlin gloats over potential oil price spike from Iran war: Russian officials have openly celebrated the potential economic windfall from the Iran conflict, with envoy Kirill Dmitriev predicting “$100+ oil per barrel soon” on social media. Propagandist Vladimir Solovyov told viewers the attack is “a big plus” for Russia’s budget, suggesting Moscow could become one of few remaining major oil producers.

2️⃣ 🇲🇦 Cargo ship sinks off Western Sahara: A Panama-flagged vessel carrying cement materials sank off the coast of Western Sahara on Saturday after reporting water ingress. All crew members were rescued and Moroccan authorities have opened an investigation.

3️⃣ 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine claws back southern territory as war enters fifth year: Ukraine has regained up to 400 square kilometres of territory in the south since late January, while improved air defences intercepted 90 percent of a 420-drone Russian attack on the war's fourth anniversary. Ukrainian strikes also hit key Russian military infrastructure, including the Votkinsk missile factory 1,200km from the border, marking the first successful use of its new Flamingo heavy missile against a high-value target.

4️⃣ 🇻🇪🇺🇸 Maduro seeks dismissal of charges, claims US blocked legal defence funds: Venezuelan President Maduro has asked a U.S. judge to throw out drug trafficking charges, arguing the Trump administration revoked permission for Venezuela to pay his legal fees just hours after initially granting it. His lawyer said the move violates Maduro's constitutional right to counsel, while he and his wife remain jailed without bail in New York since their January seizure.

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