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US Special Envoy Witkoff signaled cautious optimism over Ukraine peace talks, Ecuador launched its most forceful crackdown on criminal networks yet with US backing, and South Africa summoned the newly appointed US ambassador over remarks on apartheid-era policies.

Meanwhile, Tehran struck Gulf infrastructure and coordinated its first joint attack with Hezbollah against more than 50 Israeli sites, as the IEA agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from emergency reserves.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺🇮🇳 Russia and India explore SCO and BRICS role in Iran de-escalation: Foreign Ministers Lavrov and Jaishankar discussed the potential for both blocs to help reduce tensions stemming from the US-Israeli campaign against Iran. Tehran has since retaliated against Israel and Gulf states hosting US assets.

2️⃣ 🇹🇷 Erdogan warns Israel over alleged sectarian designs: The Turkish president accused Israel of attempting to stoke sectarian conflict, appearing to reference reported US-Israeli contacts with Iranian Kurdish rebel groups, and called for the war on Iran to end before it engulfs the wider region. He made no mention of Iran's two ballistic missile incursions into Turkey.

3️⃣ 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Witkoff sees early signs of Ukraine peace breakthrough: The US special envoy cited growing exhaustion on both sides, with Ukraine's delegation acknowledging more progress since initial Geneva talks than in the past four years. Scheduled trilateral talks this week were postponed by Washington due to the situation in Iran.

4️⃣ 🇪🇨🇺🇸 Ecuador prepares sweeping offensive against criminal networks: Backed by US logistics and intelligence, Ecuador will launch operations targeting drug trafficking and illegal mining this weekend. A curfew across four provinces runs from March 15–30, with officials describing it as the most forceful crackdown to date.

5️⃣ 🇿🇦🇺🇸 South Africa summons US ambassador over undiplomatic remarks: Ambassador Bozell was called in after dismissing a court ruling on an apartheid-era chant and comparing post-apartheid economic policies to apartheid-era discrimination. It is the latest flashpoint in a broader deterioration of ties that has included US tariffs and claims of white persecution.

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Major Story

🇮🇷 Iran War Day 12 Update

Military

▪️ Iran escalated its targeting of Gulf infrastructure and commercial shipping on Wednesday, striking Dubai's airport, oilfields across the region, and at least three merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz — bringing the total ships hit since the war began to 14. Senior Iranian officials warned of a prolonged "war of attrition" and vowed not to allow any oil through Hormuz until US-Israeli strikes cease.

▪️ Hezbollah and Iran carried out their first coordinated joint attack against Israel — dubbed "Operation Chewed Wheat" — targeting more than 50 sites including military bases in Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Beersheba, marking the most intense Hezbollah assault since the war began. Israel responded with its heaviest bombardment of Beirut's southern suburbs yet and redeployed the Golani Brigade from Gaza to its northern border, which analysts said could signal a ground invasion of Lebanon.

▪️ Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded in the strikes that killed his father, mother, wife, and other relatives on February 28, and has not appeared publicly or issued any statement since his appointment. Israel's defence minister had previously declared any successor leader a target for elimination.

Diplomatic

▪️ Russia is providing Iran with specific tactical advice on drone operations targeting US and Gulf assets — beyond the general targeting assistance previously reported — according to a Western intelligence official who spoke to CNN. 

▪️ The Washington Post reports the Iranian elementary school struck on day one of the war — killing at least 175, many of them children — was on a US target list and likely hit due to an intelligence error, with a preliminary Pentagon investigation pointing to US responsibility. Whether AI-assisted targeting via Palantir's Maven platform, powered in part by Anthropic's Claude, contributed remains under investigation.

Economic / Oil

▪️ The IEA's 32 member nations unanimously agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, with the US contributing 172 million barrels over approximately 120 days beginning next week. The IEA's executive director cautioned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz nonetheless remains the only path to restoring stable energy flows.

▪️ Shell and TotalEnergies issued force majeure notices to buyers after Qatar suspended LNG production following drone strikes on its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities. Qatar's energy minister warned restoration could take weeks to months even if the conflict ended immediately.

▪️ The Pentagon told a Senate subcommittee in a closed-door briefing that the first six days of the war cost more than $11.3 billion, a figure at least one senator believes understates the true total as it excludes munitions replacement costs. The Trump administration is yet to determine how much it will request from Congress in supplemental funding.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸🇵🇰 US to permanently close Peshawar consulate: The State Department cited $7.5 million in annual savings, with services for 18 American staff and 89 local employees to be absorbed by the embassy in Islamabad and consulates in Karachi and Lahore. The closure has been under consideration for over a year as part of broader federal downsizing.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸🤖 US military confirms AI use in Iran war: CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper said AI tools are processing battlefield data at speed, while stressing humans retain final targeting authority.

3️⃣ 🇪🇸🇮🇱 Spain permanently withdraws ambassador to Israel: Madrid terminated its envoy's position, with the Tel Aviv embassy to be led by a chargé d'affaires for the foreseeable future.

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