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Ukrainian drones struck power infrastructure in Estonia and crashed in Latvia after veering off course during an attack on a Russian port, while Britain authorised military forces to board and detain sanctioned Russian shadow fleet vessels transporting oil through UK waters.

This comes as drone attacks disabled roughly 40% of Russian oil export capacity across Baltic and Black Sea ports, and as Iran warned it would strike the infrastructure of any country supporting a potential US invasion of its territory — with a former MI6 chief saying Tehran now holds the "upper hand" in the conflict.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇪🇱🇻 Ukrainian drones strike Baltic state territory: Ukrainian drones deviated from a large-scale attack on Russia's Ust-Luga port and entered Estonian and Latvian airspace overnight, with one striking a power plant chimney in Estonia and another crashing in southern Latvia. Officials attributed the incidents to GPS interference or electronic warfare, with Estonia's security chief warning more such events are likely as military operations continue in neighboring countries.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧🇷🇺 Britain prepares to board Russian shadow fleet ships: Prime Minister Keir Starmer approved military action allowing British forces to board and detain sanctioned Russian vessels transporting oil through UK waters, with specialist units including the Special Boat Service completing training for potential armed resistance. The government has sanctioned 544 ships believed to be part of Russia's shadow fleet, which reportedly carries around 75% of Russian crude oil exports to circumvent sanctions funding the Ukraine war.

3️⃣ 🇭🇺🇺🇦 Hungary threatens to halt gas supplies to Ukraine: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced plans to gradually stop gas deliveries to Ukraine unless Kyiv resumes oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline, which Hungary claims Ukraine has blocked for 30 days. Ukraine dismissed the threat, asserting it has sufficient gas reserves and alternative sources, while noting Hungary stands to lose over a billion dollars from the move — which comes two weeks before Hungarian elections where Orbán trails his pro-EU rival.

4️⃣ 🇪🇺🇷🇺 EU delays proposal to ban Russian oil: The European Commission postponed legislation to permanently prohibit Russian oil imports, originally scheduled for 15 April, citing energy market volatility from the Middle East war and the ongoing Druzhba dispute referenced above. The proposal would bypass unanimity requirements that have allowed Budapest and Bratislava to maintain exemptions under current sanctions, though both countries have threatened legal action if it proceeds.

5️⃣ 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukrainian drones knock out 40% of Russian oil exports: Drone attacks have disabled roughly 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil export capacity across Baltic and Black Sea ports, with loadings at Primorsk and Ust-Luga suspended after fires this week and the Druzhba pipeline to Central Europe offline since January. Reuters, in an exclusive, described the disruption as the most severe in modern Russian history, with at least 50 tankers now waiting offshore in the Gulf of Finland.

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Major Story

🇮🇷 Iran War Update: Day 27

Military

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 Iran warns against island invasion, threatens regional retaliation: Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that "enemies" are planning to occupy an Iranian island with regional support, threatening relentless attacks on the vital infrastructure of any country assisting such an operation. The warning — believed to reference potential US plans for Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran's oil exports — came as Washington deployed 2,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the region while simultaneously claiming peace talks are progressing.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 Former MI6 chief says Iran has 'upper hand' in war: Sir Alex Younger, who led Britain's Secret Intelligence Service from 2014 to 2020, said the US "underestimated the task" and lost the initiative to Iran roughly two weeks ago. He credited Tehran's early decisions to disperse military capabilities and delegate weapons authority, adding that Iran's framing of the conflict as existential gives it more staying power than the US, which embarked on "a war of choice."

3️⃣ 🇮🇷🇮🇱 Iran targets Israeli power plant as air war intensifies: An Iranian ballistic missile struck an open area near Hadera in an apparent attempt to hit Israel's largest power station, Orot Rabin, while the Israeli Air Force destroyed Iran's sole submarine development facility in Isfahan.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺🇮🇷 Russia sending drones to Iran to support war effort: Moscow began delivering drones, medicine and food to Tehran in early March following secret discussions that started days after the US-Israeli strikes began, according to western intelligence cited by the Financial Times. The shipment marks the first evidence of Russian lethal support to Iran since the war started, reversing years of Iranian drone supplies to Russia for its Ukraine invasion.

Diplomacy

1️⃣ 🇺🇸🇮🇷 White House threatens to 'unleash hell' as Iran rejects ceasefire plan: Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned Iran must "accept defeat" or face unprecedented strikes. Iran countered with five demands including war reparations and continued control of the Strait of Hormuz — conditions likely unacceptable to Washington — though mediators suggested in-person talks could begin as soon as Friday.

Economic/Oil

1️⃣ 🌍 Oil edges up amid mixed signals on Iran talks: Brent crude rose 1% to $103 per barrel while WTI gained 1.2% to $91 as investors weighed conflicting statements on US-Iran negotiations, with markets stabilising this week despite the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The International Chamber of Commerce warned the conflict could cause the "worst industrial crisis" in decades, while the WTO noted a third of global fertiliser supply normally transits the strait, posing a double threat to food security.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump reschedules Beijing summit for May: President Trump will travel to China on May 14-15 to meet President Xi Jinping, after postponing the originally scheduled late March visit to focus on the Iran war. The White House expressed optimism the conflict could conclude before the trip, while the summit aims to build on a fragile trade truce complicated by Trump's pressure on Beijing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸🇭🇺 Trump endorses Orbán for reelection: President Trump publicly backed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ahead of the 12 April election, calling him a "truly strong and powerful leader" despite Orbán trailing opposition candidate Péter Magyar in polls. The endorsement comes amid allegations that Hungary's foreign minister shared confidential EU information with Russia — claims Magyar called potential "treason" — and as Orbán continues blocking EU loan packages for Ukraine.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸🇮🇶 US strikes kill seven fighters at Iraqi military base: Air strikes hit a military healthcare clinic at a base in Iraq's Anbar province shared by the Popular Mobilisation Forces and regular Iraqi army. Iraq's government summoned the US chargé d'affaires and announced plans to file a UN Security Council complaint, while reaffirming the PMF's "right to respond" following a deadlier strike the previous day that killed 15 fighters.

4️⃣ 🇯🇵🇨🇳 Japanese soldier arrested for Chinese embassy break-in: A 23-year-old Japanese army soldier was arrested after scaling the wall of China's embassy in Tokyo, reportedly carrying a knife and demanding the ambassador soften Beijing's stance toward Japan. Japan expressed regret over the incident amid escalating tensions following Prime Minister Takaichi's November remarks that Chinese military action against Taiwan could justify Japanese use of force.

5️⃣ 🇧🇾🇰🇵 Lukashenko visits North Korea for talks with Kim Jong Un: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko arrived in Pyongyang for an official visit, with the two countries expected to sign a friendship and cooperation treaty during the trip. The meeting comes as Kim called for North Korea to play a stronger role in a "united front" against Washington amid rising anti-American sentiment.

6️⃣ 🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israeli bill to execute Palestinian prisoners advances: The Knesset's National Security Committee approved legislation allowing the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of fatal attacks, with final votes expected as early as next week despite over 1,000 objections and warnings from the Israeli military that it violates international law. Executions would be carried out by hanging within 90 days of sentencing, with no possibility of pardon — a measure UN experts condemned as potentially amounting to torture and discriminatory against Palestinians.

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